Sales slowing, inventory edging up, prices still climbing
The Red Deer real estate market is showing clear signs of transition. According to the Central Alberta Realtors Association (CARA) statistics, sales activity has softened compared to 2024, while housing inventory is slowly increasing; yet, average and benchmark prices remain higher than a year ago. Brokerage-level analysis, such as that from www.iOnRealEstate.com, confirms the same pattern: the market might be shifting from very tight seller conditions toward something closer to balance.
Sales: Momentum is softer
August 2025 statistics indicate that residential sales in Red Deer decreased year-over-year, with detached homes experiencing some of the steepest declines. Year-to-date detached sales are down around 6% compared to 2024, while attached product has also posted multiple months of double-digit drops.
IonRealEstate highlights this in its monthly breakdowns: several spring months saw sales down more than 20% versus last year. This reflects buyer caution, partly due to higher borrowing costs and partly due to limited new listings.
Inventory: Rising, but still low
Inventory in Red Deer has begun to climb, though not enough to tip the market into balance.
- CARA reports that months of inventory (M.O.I.) generally sit in the 1.1–1.8 range, still well below the 4.0 threshold that signals a balanced market.
- IonRealEstate points out that more neighbourhoods are creeping above the 2-month level compared to a year ago, suggesting a slow but steady loosening.
For now, that means buyers have a little more choice, but sellers still hold the advantage.
Prices: Up year-over-year
Despite weaker sales, CARA data shows both average and benchmark prices rising.
- The 6-month rolling average price for all residential homes sits near $406,000, up about 6.5% year-over-year.
- Detached homes, which lead the market, show a 6-month average near $494,000, up roughly 8.4% year-over-year.
IonRealEstate cautions, however, that the sharpest gains occurred earlier in the spring. Rolling averages smooth the volatility, but they also confirm that the pace of appreciation is slowing.
What it means
- For sellers: The market still favors you, but overpricing is riskier than six months ago. Homes in strong condition and well-marketed will still sell quickly, but the days of automatic bidding wars are waning.
- For buyers: Patience may pay off. While inventory is still thin, the pressure is easing. If M.O.I. continues to rise toward 3–4 months, buyers will find more negotiating room.
- For analysts/investors: Detached homes remain the strongest driver of price growth. If detached inventory increases sharply, expect price growth to stall or flatten.
Bottom line
The CARA statistics confirm that Red Deer’s market is cooling in terms of sales but still heating in terms of prices. IonRealEstate’s commentary reinforces that the transition is gradual — from a fiercely competitive seller’s market into a more balanced environment.
Heading into late 2025 and early 2026, all eyes should be on months of inventory. If inventory continues to rise steadily, price growth will slow; if it stalls, expect prices to remain firm.
Hosted by Blake King, Realtor® and Broker at Big Earth Realty. Blake King continually monitors the Red Deer and Central Alberta real estate market to track changes and watch trends. With this insight, he helps buyers and sellers make the best decisions. Blake also offers his “Your Home Sold Guaranteed, or I’ll Buy It” service and his Unlisted Homes For Sale Finder®—invaluable tools for those looking to maximise their success in today’s market. To learn more about how the local market impacts your next real estate move, call or email him anytime at (403) 350-7672.
