November’s average home price dips in the Red Deer market but not enough for concern.
November’s average home price drops to the second-lowest in 2021 but it won’t matter too much. The average home price in November was $325,698 and down almost $13,000 from October’s average of $338,351. Should we worry, are prices dropping?
Probably they aren’t and one month’s average is much too little to tell. It was a large enough dip to impact the 4-month running average but that’s only because July had a very high price average and it slipped outside the 4-month average as November 2021 slipped in.
The opposite dynamic happened with the 12-month average. Sure, November was down compared to October’s average but it was higher than last November’s average of $315,763 that slipped out of the 12-month average.
I think the 12-month average is the most accurate gauge of the direction our market is taking because monthly changes can be skewed and need more perspective.
In theory, the 4-month average is likely a more accurate gauge than the one-month average but it’s affected by the seasonal shifts. The November average sale price will almost always be lower than July’s average and one takes the place of the other when compiling the 4-month average.
I think the current monthly average and the 4-month average is better used comparing the month or the 4-month segment with the corresponding time period the previous year.
A close look at the average price in November shows the 12-month running average increased and the current month average, and the 4-month average is higher than the corresponding time period last year.
The 4-month running average after November last year was only $314,057 compared to the August to November average of $333,205 this year.
Looking closely at the 3 averages there’s nothing confirming a turning point with prices.
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