Slower home sales continue in 2023 but it depends on what we compare them to.
Red Deer home sales are slower in 2023 when comparing them to higher-than-normal sales through 2021 and 2022. But to understand the big picture and how our market is fairing, it’s important to absorb more information.
When most people hear that home sales are slower they begin to think the market is struggling. But before anyone jumps to that conclusion it’s important to see how the current market compares with other years.
Detached home sales
When comparing the number of homes sold each month I compare them to the same month a year earlier. Comparing them to the month before doesn’t give us a good idea of how things are changing because the start of the year generally sees home sales increase and the opposite happens through the end of the year.
Detached home sales in March 2023 were 33% lower than in March 2022 and this year we’ll likely see lower sales numbers each month. Interest rates will slow sales and market uncertainty will too. The threat of interest rates climbing encouraged more home-buying activity in 2022 and this year the higher interest rates have normalized sales.
In 2022, 132 detached homes were sold in March, and this March only 88 were sold.
Hearing a headline like Home Sales down 33%… makes us think that fewer people want to buy right now but that’s only part of what’s going on.
Attached home sales
As detached home prices increased last year we saw more attached homes sell. Higher interest rates had buyers shopping in a lower price range and higher-priced detached homes had more buyers buying attached properties.
Detached homes sale this year are 39% lower than there were in 2023 but attached home sales are doing better.
Attached home sales in Red Deer were only 17% lower than last year now that more buyers appear to be shopping in a lower price range.
This shows us that sales are slow this year but they aren’t as drastic as detached home sales portray them.
Overall home sales in Red Deer
We can see above that home sales overall in Red Deer are lower than they were in 2021 and 2022 but are things as bad as they look? Even though the numbers are coming in much lower than the last 2 years our local market is actually doing rather well.
Even though total home sales are down an average of 27% in March 2023 vs. March 2022, it’s important to remember that last year had record home sales. To get the big picture we need to compare current home sales to more normal sales years.
In 2019 and 2022 March detached home sales averaged 75 units sold, and attached home sales averaged 25 units sold. 2019 and 2020 would be considered normal years in our real estate market because they were comparable to the decade average.
Comparing March 2023 sales with “normal years” sales in the Red Deer real estate market will put things into a better perspective.
Detached home sales in March 2023 were 16.5% higher than the average in 2019/2020. If were to overlook the outstanding home sales that happened in 2021/2022, we would be seeing higher-than-average home sales in 2023. And, if we include the attached homes sale in the comparison with 2019/2020, 2023 might be considered outstanding.
Attached home sales in March 2023 are 135% higher than the average in 2019/2020!
If we compare Red Deer home sales overall in March 2023 to March 2022 they are 28% lower. But if we compare Red Deer home sales in March 2023 with the average in March 2019 and 2020, sales are up 32%. 2023 homes sales are strong.
Another variable we have to consider when discussing sales numbers in the Red Deer real estate market is inventory levels. Right now we are experiencing some of the lowest homes-for-sale inventory levels in years. There’s a very good chance that home sales in Red Deer would be higher if there were more homes available for sale.
It’s important to see how home sales compare from year to year but to get a real feel for a real estate market it’s important to compare current numbers with average market numbers.
Check-in at iOnRealEstate.ca often to keep your finger on the pulse of the Red Deer and Central Alberta real estate market.
Hosted by Blake King Realtor® and Big Earth Realty. Blake continually monitors the Red Deer and Central Alberta real estate market to track changes and watch trends so he can help his clients make the most informed decisions, buying or selling. If you want to learn more about how local market stats impact your next real estate transaction call or message Blake anytime (403) 350-7672 or email@example.com